ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Adrian Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023
300 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2023
Adrian continues to strengthen this morning, with convective banding
becoming well-defined and a CDO developing over the center with
cloud tops of -80C to -90C. In addition, an upper-level
anticyclonic outflow is becoming well established. Subjective
Dvorak estimates were DT 4.0/65-kt from SAB and DT 3.5/55-kt from
TAFB. The latest objective intensity estimates were similar 57 kt
from ADT and 54 kt from SATCON. We also recently received a partial
ASCAT-B, but it likely did not capture the highest winds on the
northeast side of Adrian's circulation. A blend of the subjective
and objective intensity guidance supports an initial intensity of
55 kt for this advisory.
The storm is within a favorable environment with low vertical wind
shear, warm SSTs and a moist air mass. Thus, further strengthening
is expected, with Adrian likely to become a hurricane later today.
Later in the forecast period, guidance indicates some increase in
wind shear in about 3 days, and Adrian is likely to move over
cooler SSTs towards the end of the forecast period. These two
factors should lead to gradual weakening. The official forecast is
mostly above the consensus intensity guidance in the short-term,
given the favorable environment and Adrian's current storm
structure.
The latest center fixes show the cyclone continues to be moving
westward at 270/8 kt. Over the next few days, the mid-level ridge
to the north of Adrian is forecast to gradually weaken as it is
eroded by a weak trough to the west of Baja California. This should
result in a weakening of the steering currents and a decrease in
the tropical cyclone's forward motion. The track model guidance
shows a lot of spread near the end of the forecast period so there
is more than usual uncertainty in the 4- and 5-day forecast
locations.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/0900Z 15.3N 107.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 15.4N 108.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 15.6N 110.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 15.8N 111.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 16.0N 112.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 30/1800Z 16.2N 113.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 16.6N 114.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 17.1N 115.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 17.5N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Beven
NNNN