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Hurricane Adrian Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023
900 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2023
Adrian appears to have begun its anticipated weakening trend. The
eye is no long apparent on geostationary satellite imagery and
cloud top temperatures have warmed overall. Microwave satellite
imagery from 2037 UTC showed deep convection only to the west of
center, implying the easterly shear has increased. Subjective
satellite intensity estimates have also decreased and the final
T-numbers are at T4.5 from both TAFB and SAB. Therefore, the
initial intensity for this advisory has been lowered to 80 kt.
The hurricane has crossed the 26 degree C sea surface temperature
isotherm this evening and SSTs along the track forecast are
projected to decrease steadily. Adrian is also moving into an dry
and stable airmass. Model guidance all predict steady to rapid
weakening in the next couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is
on the higher end of the model guidance and shows steady weakening.
Adrian is expected to be a tropical storm in the next day or so and
a post-tropical cyclone in 48 h.
Adrian is moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt. A general
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days
as the storm is steered by a ridge to the northeast. A gradual turn
to the west is forecast as the decaying vortex is caught in the
low-level flow. The latest track prediction is similar to the
previous advisory and close to the corrected consensus track
guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0300Z 18.1N 113.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 18.5N 114.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 19.0N 115.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 19.4N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 19.7N 117.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 03/1200Z 19.9N 118.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/0000Z 20.0N 120.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Bucci
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