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Post-Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142023
800 PM PDT Sun Sep 24 2023
Significant deep convection associated with the depression
dissipated about 18 hours ago. Minor shower and thunderstorm
activity has been ongoing since earlier this afternoon just south of
the center, but it is not large enough in areal coverage to be
considered organized and it has recently been waning. The latest
Dvorak estimates are T1.0/2.0 from TAFB and Too Weak to Classify
from SAB, therefore the system is being declared a remnant low with
maximum winds of 25 kt.
The remnant low is expected to move westward or west-southwestward
at 12-14 kt within the trade wind flow during the next couple of
days. Strong northwesterly mid-level shear is currently affecting
the low, and the shear is expected to increase within a deeper layer
of the atmosphere over the next 24 hours. This, along with a dry
and subsident environment, should prevent significant deep
convection from redeveloping, although occasional bursts of
convection cannot be ruled out. The NHC forecast now shows the low
opening up into a trough and dissipating by 48 hours, although this
could occur sooner according to the GFS and ECMWF forecast surface
wind fields.
For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0300Z 15.0N 126.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 25/1200Z 14.9N 128.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 26/0000Z 14.6N 131.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/1200Z 13.9N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
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