000
AXNT20 KNHC 150441
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed May 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0437 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: Pulsing gale-force winds are
forecast in the Agadir area of the Meteo-France high seas
forecast, specifically through 15/03 UTC, then again from 15/12
UTC to 16/00 UTC. Seas of 8-10 ft are possible with these winds. 
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast is issued by Meteo- 
France at https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N15W to 04N27W. The ITCZ continues from 04N27W to 
04N43W to 06N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is noted from the Equator to 06N between 21W and 36W, 
and from 05N to 09N between 43W and 51W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front over the NW Gulf extends from SE Louisiana to 
26N93W then becomes stationary to just S of the Rio Grande. 
Ahead of the front, a line of moderate to strong convection is 
moving ESE through portions of the central Gulf from 24N to 27N 
between 86.5W to 92W in association to a surface trough. Another 
surface trough is depicted over the Yucatan Peninsula and it is 
producing moderate to strong convection over the eastern Bay of 
Campeche. Moderate to fresh return flow is east of front, with 
gentle to moderate NE winds west of the front. Seas are in the 4-
6 ft range east of the front, and in the 3-5 ft range west of 
the front.

For the forecast,  a stationary front extends over the NW Gulf 
from central Louisiana to south of the Rio Grande. Ahead of the 
front, thunderstorms are moving through portions of the central 
Gulf. These thunderstorms could have locally stronger winds, 
rougher seas, frequent lightning and heavy rain. Thunderstorms 
could continue through Wed along the stationary front. 
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh return flow will dominate the 
basin, pulsing to locally strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and 
Yucatan Channel. Winds may slightly weaken during the upcoming 
weekend as the gradient relaxes. Meanwhile, haze due to 
agricultural fires in Mexico continues across most of the 
western Gulf and Bay of Campeche.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A relatively tight pressure gradient is across the basin, with 
fresh to strong winds in the NW Caribbean W of 84.5W, and in the 
central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds are elsewhere. 
Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in the NW Caribbean W of 84.5W, in 
the 6-9 ft range in the central Caribbean, and in the 2-5 ft 
range elsewhere. Deep convection is noted in the SW Caribbean S 
of 11N near the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the central 
Atlantic will support strong to near gale E to SE winds near the 
Gulf of Honduras and fresh to strong winds in the south-central 
basin through Sat night. Moderate to rough seas are expected 
with the increasing winds. Gentle to moderate winds are expected 
elsewhere through most of the week. Meanwhile, haze due to 
agricultural fires in Central America continues across some 
areas of the northwestern Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a 
Gale Warning in the East Atlantic Ocean.

A weak cold front extends from 31N48.5W to 23.5N53W, then it is 
dissipating to near 22N57W. A surface trough follows the front 
from 22N57 to N of the Turks and Caicos. Moderate southerly 
winds and seas in the 5-7 ft range are N of 29N between the 
front and 45.5W. High pressure of 1022 mb is centered W of 
Bermuda near 33N66W and is building in behind the front. Fresh 
to strong southerly winds and seas in the 5-8 ft range are noted 
off the NE Florida coast due to another approaching cold front. 
Gentle to moderate winds and seas in the 3-6 ft range are 
elsewhere west of the front. To the east of the front, high 
pressure dominates the waters. Gentle to moderate trades prevail 
across the open waters along with seas in the 4-7 ft seas, 
except fresh to strong winds N of 18N between the coast of 
Africa and 21W.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong southerly winds and 
seas of 5 to 8 ft are noted off the NE Florida coast due to an 
approaching cold front. As the front moves off the Florida coast 
Thu, these fresh to strong winds will spread E as the front 
continues moving eastward. Showers and thunderstorms are also 
possible along the front. By Fri night, the front will stall and 
weaken from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas. Conditions 
around the front should improve by Fri, with tranquil conditions 
then continuing through the upcoming weekend.

$$
KRV