000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100149
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Jun 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to 11N108W to 09N125W. 
The ITCZ continues from 09N125W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate 
to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 
80W and 95W, and from 12N to 15N between 96W and 102W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1026 mb located N of area near 36N135W extends 
a ridge across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California 
supporting gentle NW winds with seas of 3 to 5 ft N of Punta 
Eugenia, and moderate NW winds between Punta Eugenia and Cabo 
San Lucas, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate southerly 
winds are seen in the Gulf of California where seas are in the 1 
to 3 ft range. Light to gentle winds dominate the remainder of 
the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 
with seas of 4 to 6 ft in SW swell. Hazy conditions persist off 
the Mexican coast south of the southern Gulf of California all 
the way to the Tehuantepec region due to agricultural fires over 
southern Mexico. 

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore
forecast waters of Baja California producing moderate to 
occasionally fresh NW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft into late week.
Occasionally moderate winds are expected in the Gulf of 
California, increasing to fresh speeds across the central part of
the Gulf Tue through Wed night as the pressure gradient tightens
between the ridge and lower pressure pressures over inland 
Mexico. At the same time, fresh NW winds are likely between Punta
Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough remains located farther north than its usual 
climatological position for this time of the year, and this
pattern is forecast to persist through at least mid-week. This 
results in gentle to moderate SW to W winds in the offshore 
waters of Central America. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft. 

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of 
10N, while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected south of
10N through tonight. On Mon, winds will begin to gradually 
increase S of the monsoon trough, possibly reaching fresh to 
strong speeds by Wed night, mainly from 06N to 11N between 90W 
and 105W. Seas are forecast to build to 9 or 10 ft within these 
winds. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1026 mb high pressure system is centered near 36N135W. This 
system extends a ridge over the forecast waters N of 15N and W of
115W producing mainly a gentle anticyclonic flow. Moderate to fresh
E to SE winds are observed S of the ITCZ from the Equator to 
about 06N and W of 130W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft for waters N of 20N.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the area while 
strengthening somewhat by the middle of the week. The SW flow 
south of the monsoon trough and E of 110W is forecast to increase
to fresh to locally strong speeds Wed night, building seas to 9 
or 10 ft. 

$$
Konarik